2017 AWARDS TRACKER

(Image: blog.performancegateway.com)

(UPDATED: February 14, 2017)

Welcome to the sixth consecutive year of Every Movie Has a Lesson's "Awards Tracker."  This is the long road towards who will walk away with the Oscars at the 89th Academy Awards in 2017.  I have always found value to tracking who and what has won what from the build-up of the smaller awards all the way up to big show.  I find that the "tea leaves" and trends really shine through as the smaller awards pile up for a great many categories.  Curveballs still exist every year at the Oscars, but my record is solid and better than most of the fancy pants critics.  My top year was calling 20-of-24 winner in 2014, with other scores of 17, 19, 16, and another 16 this past year in 2016.  My goal is to get back to 20+.

I'm not the only site that does this.  The people at Awards Daily and their "State of the Race," Awards Circuit, HitFix's "The Circuit," and Indiewire are the authorities and even Rotten Tomatoes' "Awards Tours" have their tracking.  I stand by my results.  I hope I can help you win your office Oscar pool!  Please use me as a resource and keeping following my page for awards analysis all season.

For each award, I update a news snippet of "buzz" as the season progresses.  That's my running commentary.  Next comes the tabulated lists of who/what won what award and from whom.  After all of the award categories, I provide an acronym key linking to the full award list from that particular group.  At the very bottom of this page, I present links to other additional honors and stories pertinent to awards season and an awards calendar so that you can see when the major announcements and shows are coming.  Once again, welcome to Oscar season!  


BEST MOTION PICTURE

LATEST BUZZ:  The Oscar nominations have crafted a field of nine.  My vote for a snub is "Jackie," but if you ask everyone else it's "Silence."  Even with "La La Land" and its record-tying 14 nominations, "Moonlight" is still very strong.  The last big pre-Oscar indicator was the Producers Guild (PGA) Award given to "La La Land" on January 28.  I think that favor separates Chazelle's film from "Moonlight."

WINNERS: 

23- "Moonlight" (GIFA, LA, Chicago, AA, BO, DFW, NYO, SF, TOR, SE, BF, EDA, IND, PCC, Globe, CIFCC, GA, AUS, DEN, NSFC, SEA, VV, GAL)

22- "La La Land" (TIFF, NY, Boston, CC, DC, DET, LV, PHX, STL, UT, Globe, CIFCC, NC, London, CO, HOU, IA, OK, NT, Satellite, PGA, BAFTA)

4- "Manchester by the Sea"  (NBR, KC, Satellite, VAN)

4- "I, Daniel Blake"  (Cannes, London, DUB, BAFTA)

2- "Hell or High Water"  (SD, NEV)

1- "Hidden Figures"  (WF)

1- "The Lobster"  (FL)

1- "Arrival"  (FA)

1- "The Birth of a Nation  (Sundance)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Arrival," “Fences," “Hacksaw Ridge," “Hell or High Water," “Hidden Figures," “La La Land," “Lion," “Manchester by the Sea," “Moonlight”


BEST DIRECTOR

LATEST BUZZ:  In the last few weeks since Christmas, Damien Chazelle has caught and surpassed Barry Jenkins in total wins, including the notable Golden Globe.  Now that the Directors Guild of America has followed suit with awarding Chazelle, this race might be over.

WINNERS:

24- Damien Chazelle for "La La Land"  (Boston, BO, CC, DC, SE, DET, FL, IND, LV, PHX, PCC, STL. Globe, CIFCC, NC, GA, CO, HOU, IA, OK, NT, DGA, FA, BAFTA)

19- Barry Jenkins for "Moonlight"  (NBR, NY, LA, Chicago, AA, DFW, NFO, SF, SE, BF, EDA, PCC, UT, AUS, DEN, NSFC, SEA, VV, GAL)

3- Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester by the Sea"  (KC, Satellite, VAN)

2- David Mackenzie for "Hell or High Water"  (SD, NEV)

2- Maren Ade for "Toni Erdmann"  (TOR, EFA)

1- Pablo Larrain for "Jackie"  (TIFF)

1- Denis Villeneuve for "Arrival"  (DUB)

1- Mel Gibson for "Hacksaw Ridge"  (HFA)

1- Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for "Swiss Army Man"  (Sundance)

1- Ezra Edelman for "O.J.: Made in America"  (DGA)

1- Cristian Mungiu for "Graduation"  (Cannes)

1- Olivier Assayas for "Personal Shopper"  (Cannes) 

1- Trey Edward Shults for "Krishna"  (GIFA)

1- Lazlo Nemes for "Son of Saul"  (London)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Damien Chazelle for "La La Land," Mel Gibson for "Hacksaw Ridge," Barry Jenkins for "Moonlight," Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester by the Sea," Denis Villeneuve for "Arrival"


BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

LATEST BUZZ:  Just when we thought Casey Affleck was running away and hiding with this category, here comes the Screen Actors Guild Awards to honor Denzel Washington in a shocking surprise (one that even froze Denzel).  The SAG Award has only deviated from the eventual Oscar winner three times in 22 years and not since 2003.  The lock has been blown off the door.

WINNERS:

40- Casey Affleck for "Manchester by the Sea"  (GIFA, NBR, NY, Boston, Chicago, BO, CC, DFW, NYO, SD, DC, SE, DET, EDA, FL, IND, KC, LV, NEV, PHX, PCC, STL, UT, Globe, CIFCC, NC, GA, London, AUS, DEN, HOU, IA, NSFC, OK, NT, VAN, SEA, VV, WF, BAFTA)

5- Denzel Washington for "Fences"  (AA, SF, BF, CO, SAG)

3- Andrew Garfield for "Hacksaw Ridge/Silence"  (London, Satellite, FA)

2- Adam Driver for "Paterson"  (LA, TOR)

1- Ryan Gosling for "La La Land"  (Globe)

1- Tom Hanks for "Sully"  (HFA)

1- Peter Simonischeck for "Toni Erdmann"  (EFA)

1- David Johns for "I, Daniel Blake"  (DUB)

1- Shahab Hosseini for "The Salesman"  (Cannes)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Casey Affleck for “Manchester by the Sea,” Denzel Washington for “Fences,” Ryan Gosling for “La La Land,” Andrew Garfield for “Hacksaw Ridge,” Viggo Mortensen for “Captain Fantastic”


BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

LATEST BUZZ:   When the Oscar nominations were announced, I pointed to the SAG Award as the place to break the Huppert-Portman tie as given favor to a clear frontrunner.  Like Best Actor, SAG kicked open a new door to honor Emma Stone.  The SAG-to-Oscar track record of correlation in Best Actress is not as strong as Best Actor, but there have only been five differences in 22 years.  Emma Stone just became your new favorite.

WINNERS:  

17- Isabelle Huppert for "Elle" and "The Things to Come" (GIFA, NY, LA, Boston, BO, NYO, SF, FL, STL, Globe, London, AUS, NSFC, Satellite, VAN, SEA, VV)

15- Natalie Portman for "Jackie"  (Chicago, CC, DFW, DC, HFA, SE, KC, LV, PCC, CIFCC, GA, DEN, HOU, NT, WF)

7- Emma Stone for "La La Land"  (DET, PHX, UT, Globe, NC, SAG, BAFTA)

5- Amy Adams for "Arrival"  (NBR, DUB, IA, OK, FA)

3- Ruth Negga for "Loving"  (AA, BF, Satellite)

2- Rebecca Hall for "Christine"  (IND, CO)

2- Sandra Huller for "Toni Erdmann"  (TOR, EFA)

1- Annette Bening for "20th Century Women"  (NEV)

1- Sonia Braga for "Aquarius"  (SD)

1- Kate Beckinsale for "Love and Friendship"  (London)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Natalie Portman for “Jackie,” Emma Stone for “La La Land,” Ruth Negga for "Loving,” Meryl Streep for “Florence Foster Jenkins,” and Isabelle Huppert for “Elle”


BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

LATEST BUZZ:   I called the Aaron Taylor-Johnson snub, the first acting Golden Globe winner in 40 years to not receive a subsequent Academy Award nomination, and his co-star replacement in Michael Shannon.  Hugh Grant is the likely bigger snub.  All will have to settle for the "happy to be there" card to Mahershala Ali, who's looking like a stone-cold, lead-pipe lock, especially after the cementing SAG win (and he even walked away with a second trophy as part of the "Hidden Figures" ensemble).  

WINNERS:

34- Mahershala Ali for "Moonlight"  (NY, LA, Boston, Chicago, AA, BO, CC, DFW, NYO, SD, SF, TOR, DC, SE, BF, EDA, IND, PCC, STL, UT, CIFCC, GA, London, AUS, CO, DEN, IA, NSFC, OK, VAN, SEA, VV, SAG, GAL)

8- Jeff Bridges for "Hell or High Water"  (NBR, DET, FL, KC, PHX, NC, HOU, Satellite)

2- Dev Patel for "Lion"  (FA, BAFTA)

2- Michael Shannon for "Nocturnal Animals"  (LV, NT)

2- Ben Foster for "Hell or High Water"  (SD, NEV)

1- Aaron Taylor-Johnson for "Nocturnal Animals"  (Globe)

1- Hugh Grant for "Florence Foster Jenkins"  (HFA)

1- Tom Bennett for "Love and Friendship"  (London)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Mahershala Ali for “Moonlight,” Jeff Bridges for “Hell or High Water,” Lucas Hedges for "Manchester by the Sea," Dev Patel for “Lion,” and Michael Shannon for “Nocturnal Animals”


BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

LATEST BUZZ:  The Oscar nominations matched the SAG and the Golden Globe fields.  Viola Davis is becoming the lock of locks.  She is running away and hiding with this category with the largest and showiest role of all the nominees.  Her SAG win was the last formality to clinch her Oscar race.  Anyone's name but hers being read aloud on February 25 will be the shock of shocks and the second time she was robbed this decade as the frontrunner (see "The Help").  

WINNERS:

29- Viola Davis for "Fences"  (AA, CC, DFW, NYO, SF, DC, SE, BF, DET, EDA, IND, KC, LV, PHX, PCC, STL, UT, Globe, CIFCC, NC, GA, AUS, DEN, HOU, IA, SEA, SAG, GAL, BAFTA)

10- Michelle Williams for "Manchester by the Sea" and "Certain Women"  (NY, Chicago, BO, SD, TOR, FL, NSFC, OK, NT, VAN)

5- Naomie Harris for "Moonlight"  (NBR, KC, London, Satellite, FA)

4- Lily Gladstone for "Certain Women"  (LA, Boston, CO, VV)

1- Ruth Negga for "Loving"  (EDA)

1- Nicole Kidman for "Lion"  (HFA)

1- Greta Gerwig for "20th Century Women"  (NEV)

1- Jaclyn Jose for "Ma' Rosa"  (Cannes)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Viola Davis for "Fences," Naomie Harris for "Moonlight," Nicole Kidman for "Lion," Octavia Spencer for "Hidden Figures," Michelle Williams for "Manchester by the Sea"


BEST ENSEMBLE (non-Oscar category)

LATEST BUZZ:  Even though this isn't an Oscar category, I enjoy following the race in this category.  It does show a little favoritism leaning towards Best Picture favorites helping to prognosticate the top winner.  The "Hidden Figures" win at the SAG Awards was a big boost to their Oscar credibility.

WINNERS:

14- "Moonlight" (GIFA, Boston, BO, CC, NYO, SE, DET, NEV, CIFCC, GA, AUS, CO, OK, SEA)

5- "Hidden Figures"  (NBR, AA, LV, SAG, WF)

3- "Hell or High Water"  (SD, DC, PHX)

1- "Everybody Wants Some!!"  (IND)

1- "Manchester by the Sea"  (FA)

1- "American Honey"  (FL)

1- "20th Century Women"  (DET)

1- "Fences"  (BF)

1- "Gold"  (HFA)


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

LATEST BUZZ:  Every year, there is always one little indie that crashes this party.  Kudos to the team behind "The Lobster."  It's a movie I didn't care for, yet completely respect as a wildly creative endeavor.  With "La La Land" and "Moonlight" vying for Best Picture, this is looking like the spot to spread the wealth and honor Lonergan.  Chazelle is still a formidable threat.  The Writers Guild of America name their winners on February 18th, which should clear this three-horse race up.

WINNERS:

19- Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester by the Sea"  (NBR, NY, Boston, Chicago, BO, CC, DFW, NYO, SF, TOR, HFA, SE, EDA, IND, CIFCC, OK, VAN, VV)

10- Taylor Sheridan for "Hell or High Water"  (SD, KC, NEV, PHX, STL, UT, NC, CO, DEN, HOU)

6- Damien Chazelle for ""La La Land"  (CC, DC, DET, LV,  Globe, GA)

3- Efthimis Filippou and Yorgos Lanthimos for "The Lobster"  (LA, FL, PCC)

1- Byron Howard, Jared Bushg, Rich Moore, Josie Trinidad, Jim Reardon, Phil Johnston, and Jennifer Lee for "Zootopia"  (FA)

1- Maren Ade for "Toni Erdmann"  (EFA)

1- Ava DuVernay for "13th"  (WF)

1- Asghar Farhadi for "The Salesman"  (Cannes)

1- Chad Hartigan for "Morris From America"  (Sundance)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Damien Chazelle for “La La Land,” Kenneth Lonergan for “Manchester by the Sea,” Taylor Sheridan for “Hell or High Water,” Mike Mills for "20th Century Women," ” Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou for “The Lobster”

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) NOMINEES: Taylor Sheridan for "Hell or High Water," Damien Chazelle for "La La Land," Jeff Nichols for "Loving," Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester by the Sea," Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney for "Moonlight"


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

LATEST BUZZ:  Until the leading craft group in this category, the Writers Guild of America, names their winners on February 19, a small yet effective prognosticator in the adapted writing category is the USC Scripter Award.  The last six winners of the award have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay.  The USC win for "Moonlight" is huge.  Expect the WGA to follow suit.

WINNERS:

17- Tarell McCraney and Barry Jenkins for "Moonlight"  (GIFA, SF, SE, BF, EDA, IND, UT, CIFCC, GA, AUS, CO, DEN, Satellite, SEA, GAL, BAFTA)

10- Eric Heisserer for "Arrival"  (CC, SF, DC, KC, NEV, NC, AUS, DUB, OK, FA)

3- Whit Stilman for "Love and Friendship"  (SD, FL, STL)

2- August Wilson for "Fences"  (AA, BF)

1- Luke Davies for "Lion"  (BAFTA)

1- Andrew Knight and Robert Schenkken for "Hacksaw Ridge"  (PHX)

1- Tom Ford for "Nocturnal Animals"  (LV)

1- Jay Cocks and Martin Scorsese for "Silence"  (NBR)

1- Seo Kyung-Chung and Chan-wook Park for "The Handmaiden"  (Chicago)

1- Kieran Fitzgerald and Oliver Stone for "Snowden"  (Satellite)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Barry Jenkins and Tarell McCraney for “Moonlight,” Eric Heisserer for “Arrival,” Luke Davies for “Lion,” Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi for "Hidden Figures," August Wilson for “Fences”

WRITERS GUILD OF AMERICA (WGA) NOMINEES:  Eric Heisserer for "Arriva," Rhett Reese and Paul Wernick for "Deadpool," August Wilson for "Fences," Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi for "Hidden Figures," Tom Ford for "Nocturnal Animals"


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

LATEST BUZZ:  The Oscar nominations went bold to omit a Pixar film, and their biggest ever hit in "Finding Dory."  This is still between "Zootopia" and "Kubo and the Two Strings."  The current edge right now sides with "Zootopia" after winning the PGA Award from the producers.  The last domino to fall were the Annie Awards, which honored "Zootopia."  That may be enough to seal the future Oscar, even with the BAFTA going to "Kubo."

ANIMATED FEATURE WINNERS:

22- "Zootopia"  (NY, AA, CC, DFW, TOR, HFA, SE, BF, EDA, KC, PHX, STL, Globe, NC, GA, DEN, OK, NT, SEA, Annie, FA)

18- "Kubo and the Two Strings"  (NBR, Chicago, BO, NYO, SD, DC, FL, IND, LV, PCC, UT, CIFCC, AUS, CO, HOU, IA, VV, BAFTA)

2- "The Red Turtle"  (SF, Annie)

1- "My Life as a Zucchini"  (Satellite)

1- "Moana"  (NEV)

1- "Your Name"  (LA)

1- "Tower"  (Boston)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES FOR BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:  “Kubo and the Two Strings," “Moana," “My Life as a Zucchini," “The Red Turtle," “Zootopia"


BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

LATEST BUZZ:  This is my page, so I'm giving props to my own people.  I am happy to among the voting members of the Chicago Independent Film Critics Circle, who dove deeper than other critics groups to recognized short films.  Our winner in the combined category of animated and live-action shorts was Pixar's "Piper."  The Annie Awards felt the same way, bestowing its prize to "Piper."

WINNERS:

2- "Piper"  (CIFCC, Annie)

1- "A Love Story"  (BAFTA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES: "Blind Vaysha," "Borrowed Time,"  "Pear Cider and Cigarettes," "Pearl," "Piper"


BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

WINNERS:

1- "Timecode"  (Cannes)

1- "Thunder Road"  (Sundance)

1- "Home"  (BAFTA)

1- "Imago"  (TIFF)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Ennemis Interieurs,” “La Femme et le TGV,” “Silent Nights,” “Sing,” “Timecode"


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

LATEST BUZZ:  The Oscar nominations went pretty chalk in this category.  The range was there for possible snubs in the form of "Cameraperson," "Tower," and "Weiner."  I can't see "O.J.: Made in America" losing and the PGA Awards backed the film's case even further.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE WINNERS:

26- "O.J.: Made In America" (GIFA, NBR, NY, AFI, Boston, Chicago, DET, IND, IDA, KC, LV, NEV, PCC, CIFCC, NC, GA, CO, DEN, HOU, IA, NSFC, OK, SEA, VV, PGA, GAL)(

7- "13th"  (AA, NYO, DC, BF, EDA, Satellite, BAFTA)

5- "I am Not Your Negro"  (TIFF, LA, SF, SE, STL)

5- "Cameraperson"  (BO, TOR, FL, UT, VAN)

3- "Weiner"  (Sundance, SD, DUB)

2- "Tower"  (DFW, AUS)

2- "Fire At Sea"  (EFA, London)

2- "Gleason"  (PHX, NT)

1- "Mattress Men"  (DUB)

1- "Sonita"  (Sundance)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  "13th," "Fire at Sea," "I Am Not Your Negro," "Life, Animated," "O.J.: Made in America"


BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

DOCUMENTARY SHORT WINNERS:

1- "The White Helmets"  (IDA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  "Extremis,” “4.1 Miles,” “Joe’s Violin,” “Watani: My Homeland,” “The White Helmets"


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

LATEST BUZZ:  A week ago when the Oscar nominations were announced, I called this race sewn up by "Toni Erdmann" with the absence of the un-submitted "The Handmaiden" and the snubbed "Elle."  Now, in light of the controversy surrounding the recent immigration bans and holds, a grass roots case is being made to honor Iranian great Asghar Farhadi for "The Salesman."  The director will be unable to attend the Oscars due to the new laws, which is bringing out the calls for both protest and appreciation.  His rightly sentimental case may vault "The Salesman" over "Toni Erdmann."

WINNERS:

21- "The Handmaiden"  (LA, Boston, Chicago, BO, CC, NYO, SF, SE, EDA, IND, KC, LV, PCC, UT, CIFCC, NC, AUS, HOU, OK, GAL, WF)

10- "Elle"  (CC, DC, BF, FL, PHX, STL, Globe, GA, NT, SEA)

8- "Toni Erdmann"  (NY, TOR, EFA, London, CO, DEN, NSFC, VAN)

2- "The Salesman"  (NBR, Satellite)

1- "Sand Storm"  (Sundance)

1- "Tanna"  (AA)

1- "Mountains May Depart"  (SD)

1- "Son of Saul"  (BAFTA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  "A Man Called Ove," "Land of Mine," "Tanna," "The Salesman," "Toni Erdmann" 


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

LATEST BUZZ:  The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) surprised the field with a win for Greig Fraser and "Lion."  The Oscars will make sure that Linus Sandgren is still running away and hiding.

WINNERS:

20- Linus Sandgren for "La La Land"  (Chicago, CC, DFW, DC, HFA, SE, FL, LV, NEV, PHX, STL, UT, CIFCC, NC, AUS, CO, HOU, NT, FA, BAFTA)

7- James Laxton for "Moonlight"  (NY, LA, NYO, SF, EDA, GA, NSFC)

1- Greig Fraser for "Lion"  (ASC)

1- Bradford Young for "Arrival"  (SEA)

1- Bill Pope for "The Jungle Book"  (Satellite)

1- Seamus McGarvey for "Nocturnal Animals"  (DUB)

1- Giles Nuttgens for "Hell or High Water"  (SD)

1- Chung-hoon Chung for " The Handmaiden"  (Boston)

1- Natasha Braier for "The Neon Demon"  (BO)

1- Sturla Brandth Grovlen for "Victoria"  (London)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Greig Fraser for “Lion," James Laxton for “Moonlight," Rodrigo Prieto for "Silence," Linus Sandgren for “La La Land," Bradford Young for “Arrival”


BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN/ART DIRECTION

LATEST BUZZ:  The official Art Directors Guild announced their winners on February 11, finally fleshing out a few compass points in this category.  They split their award in Period, Fantasy, and Contemporary categories.  Though "Hidden Figures" and "Passengers" are represented, the ADG cemented "La La Land" as the likely winner.  Lock it in. 

WINNERS:

10- "La La Land"  (CC, DC, FL, LV, NEV, PHX, CIFCC, GA, HOU, ADG)

5- "The Handmaiden"  (LA, Chicago, SF, STL, SEA)

2- "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them"  (FA, BAFTA)

1- "Hidden Figures"  (ADG)

1- "Passengers"  (ADG)

1- "Jackie"  (Satellite)

1- "Hail, Caesar!"  (SD)

1- "Hidden Figures"  (HFA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Arrival,” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them,” “Hail, Caesar!,” “La La Land,” “Passengers" 


BEST FILM EDITING

LATEST BUZZ:  Oscar nominee "La La Land" should be running away and hiding with this award to weave together all of it visual and performing elements.  Those colossal single take song sequences are an absolute triumph.  The American Cinema Editors (ACE) announced their winners on January 27th, with a drama award to "Arrival" and a comedy award to "La La Land."  

WINNERS:

7- "La La Land" (NY, Chicago, CC, DC, CIFCC, CO, ACE)

4- "Hacksaw Ridge"  (HFA, PHX, Satellite, BAFTA)

3- "Arrival"  (SF, ACE, FA)

3- "Moonlight"  (EDA, LV, SEA)

2- "O.J.: Made in America"  (LA, ACE)

1- "Jackie"  (STL)

1- "Sully"  (SD)

1- "Zootopia"  (ACE)

1- "Cameraperson"  (BO)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “La La Land,” “Moonlight"

AMERICAN CINEMA EDITORS (ACE) EDDIE AWARDS NOMINEESDRAMA: "Arrival," "Hacksaw Ridge," "Hell or High Water," "Manchester by the Sea," "Moonlight;"  COMEDY: "Deadpool," "Hail, Caesar!," "The Jungle Book," "La La Land," "The Lobster"


BEST COSTUME DESIGN

LATEST BUZZ:  To soon to tell, but seeing "Jackie" and "La La Land" side-by-side makes sense, even with the Oscar nominations.  More winners are needed.  In the meantime, the Costume Designers Guild has announced their nominees in three separate genres, which is nice, but tough to mix and prognosticate.  Their winners on February 20 might help the final view.

WINNERS:

4- "Jackie"  (CC, CIFCC, Satellite, BAFTA)

2- "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them"  (PHX, FA)

1- "The Handmaiden"  (SEA)

1- "The Love Witch"  (CIFCC)

1- "La La Land"  (SD)

1- "Rules Don't Apply"  (HFA)

1- "The Witch"  (LV)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Allied," “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them," “Florence Foster Jenkins,” “Jackie,” “La La Land"

COSTUME DESIGNERS GUILD AWARDS (CDG) NOMINEES: CONTEMPORARY FILM: "Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie," "Captain Fantastic," "La La Land," "Lion," "Nocturnal Animals;"  PERIOD FILM: "The Dressmaker," "Florence Foster Jenkins," "Hail, Caesar!," "Hidden Figures," "Jackie;"  FANTASY FILM: "Doctor Strange," "Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them," "Kubo and the Two Strings," "Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children," "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"


BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR-STYLING

LATEST BUZZ:  Even though the list was short and not much to choose from, the fact that none of three lead-up winners were nominated for Oscars makes this a "dartboard" category for the night.  Your throw and guess is as good as mine. Good luck hitting that bullseye.  This will be a category that keeps me from a perfect score.

WINNERS:

1- "Swiss Army Man"  (CIFCC)

1- "Suicide Squad"  (FA)

1- "Jackie"  (CC)

1- "Florence Foster Jenkins"  (BAFTA)

1- "Hacksaw Ridge"  (HFA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “A Man Called Ove,” “Star Trek Beyond,” “Suicide Squad"


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

LATEST BUZZ:   "The Jungle Book" even the numbers game with a VES win on February 7th.  The winner of the Visual Effects Society’s top film award has gone on to score the Visual Effects Oscar nine out of 14 times. But the past two VES champs – last year’s "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" and 2015’s "Dawn of the Planet of the Apes" – both lost the Academy Award.  Can "The Jungle Book" push through or is "Doctor Strange" going to play the spoiler role.   

WINNERS:

8- "The Jungle Book"  (CC, SD, LV, STL, Satellite, FA, VES, BAFTA)

7- "Doctor Strange"  (HFA, PHX, CIFCC, NC, DEN, SEA, Annie)

2- "Arrival"  (FL, SEA)

1- "Kubo and the Two Strings"  (VES)

1- "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"  (NEV)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  "Deepwater Horizon," “Doctor Strange," “The Jungle Book," “Kubo and the Two Strings," “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story"


BEST SOUND EDITING

LATEST BUZZ:  Without much in the form of lead-up awards or guilds, this is one more "dartboard" guess, but one where you bet on the field favorite of "La La Land" to sneak in.

WINNERS:

1- "Hacksaw Ridge"  (FA)

1- "Arrival"  (BAFTA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Arrival,” “Deep Water Horizon,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “La La Land,” “Sully"


BEST SOUND MIXING

LATEST BUZZ:   The lead guild-like organization of the sound mixing field is the Cinema Audio Society.  The bad news for predictions is the CAS hasn't matched the Oscar winner in three years.  The coin toss continues.  In any case, they released their nominees on January 10 and name their winners on February 18 and give the best glimpse at these smaller awards.

WINNERS:

2- "Hacksaw Ridge"  (Satellite, FA)

1- "The Jungle Book"  (HFA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Arrival,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “La La Land,” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi"

CINEMA AUDIO SOCIETY NOMINEES FOR SOUND MIXING:  "Doctor Strange," "Hacksaw Ridge," "La La Land," "Rogue One: A Star Wars Story," "Sully"


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

LATEST BUZZ:   Mica Levi is slipping and "La La Land" looks unstoppable.  Beyond that, I have no idea what that wimpy Thomas Newman score for "Passengers" is doing on the Oscar ballot.  It felt like "Wall-E 2" for him only worse and less.  That fifth spot should have been Johann Johannsson's for his sublime and scintilating "Arrival" score.

WINNERS: 

22- Justin Hurwitz for "La La Land"  (LA, CC, DFW, NYO, DC, FL, LV, PHX, PCC, STL, UT, Globe, CIFCC, GA, AUS, CO, DEN, HOU, IA, Satellite, FA, BAFTA)

5- Mica Levi for "Jackie" (Boston, Chicago, BO, SF, IND)

1- Johann Johannsson for "Arrival"  (SEA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  Mica Levi for "Jackie," Justin Hurwitz for "La La Land," Dustin O'Halloran and Hauschka for "Lion," Nicholas Britell for "Moonlight," Thomas Newman for "Passengers"


BEST ORIGINAL SONG

LATEST BUZZ:   It would be a complete shock for anything other than "City of Stars" to win.  I will join the legion of "La La Land" fans that feels "Audition" is the better song, though.  Hey, at least you get a Justin Timberlake performance at the Oscars and maybe even one from Sting!  

WINNERS:

8- "City of Stars" from "La La Land"  (CC, LV, PHX, Globe, GA, HOU, IA, Satellite)

2- "Can't Stop the Feeling" from "Trolls"  (HFA, FA)

1- "Drive It Like You Stole It" from "Sing Street"  (DEN)

1- "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from "La La Land"  (STL)

1- "Victory" from "Hidden Figures"  (AA)

FINAL OSCAR NOMINEES:  “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from “La La Land,” “Can’t Stop the Feeling" from “Trolls,” “City of Stars" from “La La Land," “The Empty Chair" from “Jim: The James Foley Story," “How Far I’ll Go" from “Moana”


ACRONYM KEY FOR AWARD GROUPS

African-American Film Critics Association (AA), ACE Eddie Awards (ACE), Art Directors Guild Awards (ADG), Annie Awards (Annie), American Film Institute (AFI), American Society of Cinematographers (ASC), Austin Film Critics Association (AUS), British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA), Black Film Critics Circle (BF), Boston Society of Film Critics (Boston), Boston Online Film Critics Associaion, (BO), Cannes Film Festival (Cannes), Cinema Audio Society (CAS), Costume Designers Guild (CDG), The Cesar Awards (Cesar), Chicago Film Critics Association (Chicago), Chicago Independent Film Critics Circle (CIFCC), Critics Choice Awards (CC), Central Ohio Film Critics Associations (CO), Washington D.C. Area Film Critics Association (DC), Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics Association (DFW), Denver Film Critics Society (DEN), Detroit Film Critics Society (DET), Directors Guild of America (DGA), Dublin Film Critics Circle (DUB), Alliance of Women Film Journalists/EDA Awards (EDA), European Film Awards (EFA), The Film Art Awards (FA), Florida Film Critics Circle (FL), Georgia Film Critics Association (GA), Gay and Lesbian Entertainment Critics Association/Dorian Awards (GAL), Gotham Independent Film Awards (GIFA), Hollywood Foreign Press Association/Golden Globes (Globe), Hollywood Film Awards (HFA), Houston Film Critics Society (HOU), Iowa Film Critics Association (IA), Indiana Film Journalist Associations (IND), International Documentary Association (IDA), Kansas City Film Critics Circle (KC), Los Angeles Film Critics Association (LA), London Film Critics Circle (London), Las Vegas Film Critics Association/Sierra Winners (LV), Makeup and Hair-styling Guild (MHG), National Board of Review (NBR), North Carolina Film Critics Association (NC), National Society of Film Critics (NSFC), North Texas Film Critics Association (NT), Nevada Film Critics Society (NEV), New York Film Critics Circle (NY), New York Online Film Critics Association (NYO), Oklahoma Film Critics Circle (OK), Online Film Critics Association (Online), The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences/Academy Awards (Oscar), Producers Guild of America (PGA), Phoenix Critic Circle (PCC), Phoenix Film Critics Society (PHX), Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAG), International Press Academy/Satellite Awards (Satellite), San Diego Film Critics Society (SD), San Francisco Film Critics Circle (SF), Southeastern Film Critics Association (SE), Seattle Film Critics Association (SEA), Independent Spirit Awards (Spirit), St. Louis Film Critics (STL), Sundance Film Festival (Sundance), Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF), Toronto Film Critics Association (TOR), USC Libraries Scripter Award (USC), Utah Film Critics Association (UT), Vancouver Critics Circle (VAN), Visual Effects Society Awards (VES), Village Voice Film Critics Poll (VV), Writers Guild of America (WGA), Womens Film Critics Circle (WF)

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